BFBS Radio Sitrep

New satellite images show Russia’s building up its military presence on the border of Finland, as it reorganises and concentrates its military closer to NATO neighbours.

But is this preparation for war within years, or trying to maintain “peace through fear”? Mike explains what Russia’s doing with its forces, and Finnish OSINT analyst Emil Kastehelmi tells us what he’s found in the satellite images.

Sitrep also talks to the Forces Complaints Ombudsman who tells us why, despite ruling the complaints system still isn’t efficient, effective or fair, she believes servicemen and women can have confidence in it.

And former RAF pilot Scottie Bateman reveals some luxury secrets from his flights on the US President’s plane, Air Force One, and just what goes into making this flying fortress.

For 9 years in a row the service complaints system has been deemed to not be efficient, effective or fair by the watchdog that oversees it.

But despite that, and some of the high-profile stories of past failures, the Ombudsman says there’s been significant progress and that planned changes can deliver more improvements.

Sitrep talks at length to Mariette Hughes about why delays don’t just affect the people who do complain, what still needs to be done, and whether servicemen and women can have confidence in a system which isn’t efficient, effective or fair.

Britain and its allies fought Nazi Germany for a gruelling four and a half years in all, but once allied ground troops landed in Europe, creating the Western Front, they completed the victory in just eleven months.

Kate and Mike are joined by Dr Meghan Kellegher from the RAF Museum to explain the strategy which led to victory, and what the allies got wrong as well as right.

VE Day wasn’t the end of World War Two.  Military historian Lucy Betteridge-Dyson tells us how thousands of British troops, including her grandfather, still faced months of fierce fighting in Burma, and were still deployed two years later.

And after Ukrainian troops joined UK commemorations of VE day, we ask whether the conflicts raging today could become the catalyst for a third global war, and how that risk can be minimised.

Pakistan and India have already fought two wars over disputed Kashmir, now after a terror attack that killed 26 tourists spiralling tensions have brought warnings another war could be imminent.

South Asia expert Dr Walter Ladwig tells us why some kind of clash seems inevitable, as Sitrep compares military capabilities and past conflicts to explain who’s most likely to come out on top.

The RAF has launched against Houthi militants in Yemen for the first time in nearly a year.  So why now? Professor Michael Clarke explains all.

And could AI predict the time and place of the world’s next big conflict? Defence AI expert Anna Knack and former CIA analyst Dr. Nandita Balakrishnan tell us how and when it could become reality.

Former Conservative MP Jack Lopresti joined Ukraine’s foreign legion, in November 2024, to share his insights and experience of procurement and diplomacy.

Those skills have become all the more important since the diplomatic earthquakes of Donald Trump’s presidency, including a temporary halt to American weapons, ammunition and intelligence for Ukraine.

Mr Lopresti tells Sitrep about the impact on the military fight, the effect on morale, and why he still firmly believes Ukraine is not losing.

Drones have come of age in Ukraine, ruling the battlefield and overtaking artillery as the leading cause of casualties.

Kate and Mike are joined by RAF veteran Dr Keith Dear to explain how small devices once designed for consumers are now not only flying spies, but also lethal weapons that have radically changed the way land battles are fought.

Ukrainian drone-experts are reported to be training British troops as part of Operation Interflex.  So what can we learn from their experiences, and can we be sure that drones will still be as relevant in the next war?

And the founder of SYOS aerospace, which will supply £30m worth of drones to Ukraine, explains how drone-boat technology is evolving and has helped Ukraine neutralise Russia’s black sea fleet.

The death and destruction in Ukraine has only intensified in the two months since Donald Trump unilaterally announced peace talks, and the one month since Ukraine offered a 30-day ceasefire.

With diplomacy having delivered nothing so far Sitrep explains how the war has played out in that time, who has the battlefield momentum, and the potential paths ahead.

Equipment is key to Ukraine’s chances but a leaked German assessment says high-end tanks, like the Leopard 2, sometimes cause problems rather than providing capability.

Former British tank-commander Hamish de Bretton-Gordon explains why, what lessons the UK should take from this, and which tank he’d want to be in if he were in Ukraine.

The Royal Navy’s newest aircraft carrier will be accompanied by more than 3000 servicemen and women, up to 24 RAF fighter jets, four British ships and four more from allies to sail as a carrier strike group halfway round the world.

But it is a considerably more dangerous world than four years ago when a British carrier group last sailed to the Indo-Pacific.

Retired Commodore Steve Prest tells us what threats the vessels could face in the Red Sea and the capabilities they have to protect themselves, and Professor Michael Clarke explains why the UK wants to show off its military might as far away as Australia when a land war is raging in Europe.

This first global operational deployment for HMS Prince of Wales will also be the first time a UK carrier has sailed with a full complement of British F35’s, and Claire Sadler explains another first – using drones to fly resupply missions between ships.

The world’s biggest military powers are all jockeying for position in and around the Arctic, starkly illustrated by Donald Trump’s demands for the US to buy Greenland even though it’s  already NATO territory.

Sitrep explains the melting pot of strategic positioning, potential trade routes, and natural resources that are driving shows of military force, including by the UK, in the High North.

Arctic expert Professor Caroline Kennedy-Pipe tells us the US can already put as many military bases as it wants in Greenland, but that the race for minerals also really matters for military power. And Professor Michael Clarke reveals the weapon of choice for Canadian troops in the Arctic, to defend themselves from polar bears.

The head of NATO says nothing can replace the US nuclear umbrella as the ultimate guarantee of our security,  and “Europe needs to know Uncle Sam still has our back”

But amid doubts about US commitment there is talk creating a comprehensive European nuclear capability without American-owned weapons.  Could the UK and France really provide a Europe only deterrent?  And if so, should they?

Sitrep compares our capabilities with the rest of the world and explains the complex thinking behind history’s bluntest and most powerful weapons.

Former NATO arms-control director William Alberque tells us why his thinking today is different, and Professor Michael Clarke explains why he has, very reluctantly, changed his view on Britain’s nuclear deterrent.

The head of the Army has spoken of his “anger and shame” after more than a thousand women shared stories of harassment, bullying and much worse while they served their country.

Another set of changes have been announced to try to stop unacceptable behaviours, including a tri-service unit to take over the most serious complaints from the chain of command. But is it enough?

Sitrep explains the detail of the changes and talks to two veterans, who are also leading advocates for women in the forces.

Former Conservative MP Sarah Atherton and Commodore Steve Prest share their own experiences to assess the scale and causes of unacceptable behaviours, and how culture can be changed to prevent bullying, harassment and discrimination.

Sitrep assesses how the 30-day ceasefire, offered by Ukraine, could work in reality.  Would troops just stay in place and dig in, or might they have to pull back from a buffer zone?

It is a tactical trade-off by Kyiv which gives it back US military aid and intelligence, and forces Russia onto the diplomatic back foot.

Professor Michael Clarke explains which side has most to gain from a pause to rest and re-equip while former head of the Army, General Lord Dannatt, shares lessons from Bosnia suggesting even the most junior soldiers will have to fully understand the terms of any deal.

Kate and Mike also talk to former UK National Security Adviser Lord Peter Ricketts to assess the UK’s role in getting to this point, and the possibility of British troops being part of any longer-term peace plan.

The highest command in the world’s most powerful military alliance has always been held by a top American officer, almost always with a British deputy.

But as the Trump administration tells Europe the US will do less, and we’ve got to do much more for our own defence, should the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) become a European job?

Kate Gerbeau talks to General Philip Breedlove, who was SACEUR from 2013-2016, about what the role involves, how much influence it wields, and how much difference the change could make.

He also reveals how during Russia’s first invasion of Ukraine (2014) he used his other role, as a US commander, to deliver action that had been resisted from within the alliance. 

Whatever you think of how President Trump said it to President Zelensky, the fact is Ukraine is not in good position. 

That was made worse by the freezing of US military aid, and crucial moment-by-moment intelligence.

Sitrep explains how that has left Ukraine “blindfolded with one hand tied behind its back”  and assesses its options to stay in the fight or even strengthen its position for any talks.

Former UK military attaché to Ukraine John Foreman tells us the country’s ground capability still remains a key point of leverage, and Sitrep’s Simon Newton details how and when the sudden stop to US hardware flows will bite.

We now have a deadline for the UK to spend 2.5% of national income on defence and it’s much sooner than anyone expected.  But cash doesn’t just turn into military might.

There are many things you could spend it on. People? Hardware? Training? The real question is what you should spend it on, for the right capabilities at the right times.

There are urgent priorities to rapidly improve defence of our own doorstep as the US pulls back, but we still need to plan for long term battle-winning edge.

Professor Michael Clarke explains why ‘invisible’ capabilities will be favoured over heavy metal, while Matthew Savill from RUSI assesses how hard it will be to deliver the Defence Secretary’s priority of “arresting the long-term fall in numbers of service personnel”.

In the 1970’s and 1980’s the UK typically spent 4-5% of its national income on Defence, but what did that money buy and what did our Armed Forces spend their time doing?

Kate Gerbeau and Professor Michael Clarke talk to historian Ian J Sanders, host of the Cold War Conversations podcast, for a history lesson on how we deployed our military capability to protect Europe from a Russian led threat.

Times may have changed a lot, countries like Poland and Estonia which were part of the enemy bloc back then are now staunch allies who we help defend, but some things stay the same.

So Kate, Mike and Ian assess what lessons we should be taking right now from our victory in the Cold War.

[You can see more about the work of British forces in the cold war in our series Real Cold War Spies: BRIXMIS - https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLeQQkbf45pQM7fhBI5Lv_DvSanxy-bfw0]

[You can listen to Ian’s podcast Cold War Conversations here - https://coldwarconversations.com/]

Despite the many uncertainties about a possible peace-deal for Ukraine, Britain’s Defence Secretary says the detail is being developed for a European led security guarantee.

Former head of the Army General Lord Dannatt warns that while the Prime Minister is ready and willing to commit British troops, the Army is willing but not ready.

Sitrep assesses how many people and what equipment it might be required, exactly what the role of such a force could be, how long it might be needed for, and what alternatives there are  to international ground troops.

Plus Professor Michael Clarke explains how the Sir Keir Starmer will try to persuade President Trump to commit a US backstop that would support Ukraine’s security from outside its territory.

Donald Trump’s tried to take Ukraine’s future out of its own hands by opening negotiations with Russia, and telling Kyiv that NATO membership and getting all of its land back are hopeless ambitions.

So what should Ukraine do now? Could focussing on the fight still improve its negotiating position, or has it reached its high watermark in the war? Professor Michael Clarke and retired General Sir Richard Shirreff assess the battlefield balance of power.

America’s Defence Secretary says “stark strategic realities prevent the United States from being primarily focused on Europe”. The UK’s stepping up as the US steps back, but how much more will we do to lead from the front?

And as some of the world’s most powerful defence and security figures gather at the Munich Security Conference Sitrep explains why this private talking shop has become a marketplace for some of the world’s most consequential decisions.

Keir Starmer wants a post-brexit reset with the EU, and he thinks it should start with “an ambitious partnership” on defence and security.

But would it help our Armed Forces when we already have NATO? Former Army officer Ed Arnold explains how both the EU and NATO could give us more bang-for-our-buck, as well as the potential pitfalls.

British troops are showing partnership in action in Estonia on NATO’s biggest cold weather exercise, Winter Camp.  Sitrep hears from some of those taking part and BFBS reporter David Sivills-McCann explains what it’s all about.

And 25 years since the ban on gay and bisexual people serving in the Armed Forces was lifted, the Defence Secretary who made the change talks in detail for the first time about whether the government was forced to do it, or really believed it was the right thing.

Donald Trump wants NATO members to spend 5% of their national income on Defence, the UK is years away from meeting half that target.

Is 5% a realistic figure, given that we did it back in the cold war, or would that simply be spending money for the sake of it?  Mike does some reality checking, and Kate talks to Labour MP Luke Akehurst who says the current UK ambition of 2.5% should “just be the start of the conversation”.

One demand from some who want more spent on Defence is better protection from missiles.  Claire Sadler explains the options, and how far we can or can’t defeat missiles.

And after the right-royal row about the renaming of a submarine, from HMS Agincourt to HMS Achilles, we explain who chooses the names of Royal Navy vessels, and how.